Finance Minister: int’l organisations forecast 3-4% economic growth for 2021
International Monetary Fund forecasts 3 per cent economic growth in Georgia in 2021. Photo: Ministry of Finance.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank forecast Georgian economic growth to be three-four per cent by 2021, said Georgian Finance Minister Ivane Matchavariani.
Average annual growth of five per cent in recent years is not a small number. We had more than five per cent over the last two-three years,” said Matchavariani.
He expressed hope the country will return to its prior economic growth rate soon.
Matchavariani said that the positive forecast of the international organisations on Georgian economic growth is due to the country's solid economic indicators and the economic resilience Georgia has displayed in recent years.
He noted Georgia’s success in combating the coronavirus crisis and said that the positive forecasts are tied to how the country was developing before the crisis and how effective the anti-coronavirus measures have been.
Due to the coronavirus crisis the IMF projected Georgian economic growth to fall four per cent this year. The World Bank said the economic growth of the country will be close to 0 per cent in 2020 amid the coronavirus outbreak.
Despite a state of emergency, economic activity continues in Georgia except for Marneuli and Bolnisi municipalities in eastern Georgia where a strict quarantine regime has been imposed after a local, 62-year-old woman tested positive for COVID-19 came into contact with more than 80 locals.
The real growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Georgia amounted to 5.1 per cent in 2019 and the deflator percentage change equalled 6.6 per cent year-on-year, show the preliminary data published by the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
Economic growth in Georgia is projected to reach 3 per cent in 2021, while it will be reduced by 4 per cent in 2020, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook. It says that the COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity.
The World Bank projects Georgian economic growth to slow sharply this year, coming close to zero percent in 2020 due to the challenging external environment and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also forecasts Georgian fiscal deficit (a shortfall in a government's income compared with its spending) to be around 5.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Georgian economic growth to fall 5.5 per cent in 2020 mainly as a result of a reduction in the country’s tourism sector due to coronavirus restrictions on travelling.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) will decline in 2020 in Georgia and is estimated to be -4.8 per cent, with projected recovery of growth at 4 per cent in 2021, reads the World Bank’s recent report Global Economic Prospects 2020.
TBC Capital, Georgia’s brokerage, advisory and investment bank, predicts the Georgian economy will shrink 4.5 - 5.5 per cent this year in its report about the coronavirus’ impact on Georgia.